ARE EXPERTS NO GOOD? (COMMENT)
ARE EXPERTS NO GOOD? (COMMENT) Nick and Dick Weisfelder expressed a skeptical view of the American voter here. I want to point out that there is some evidence that experts do no better than ordinary citizens in making predictions. This essay by Louis Menand discusses Philip Tetlock’s book EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT: HOW GOOD IS IT? HOW CAN WE KNOW? The review discusses various studies which show that college counselors, clinical psychologists and political pundits don’t do any better than anybody else. Tetlock argues that “‘we as a society would be better off if participants in policy debates stated their beliefs in testable forms”—that is, as probabilities—“monitored their forecasting performance, and honored their reputational bets.’” I argued for greater use of probabilities in discussing policies here and here.
Predictions and quality of selections are different beasts.