Pater Familias

Theories, observations, and articles, by Philip Schaefer · All posts · Categories

EXPLAINING WHY TRUMP WON THE ELECTION.

November 14, 2016 · Economics, Politics

EXPLAINING WHY TRUMP WON THE ELECTION. Why did Donald Trump win the election? The internet is full of explanations. This article by Gregory Krieg on the CNN site two days after the election compiled 24 different theories why Trump one. It would take you a short time to construct 24 more.

I think the answer to the question is that this, like many American elections, was a close election. Elections with a one or two percent margin are close. The margin in the popular vote at this point is about one half per cent with Hillary Clinton ahead. In an election that close, any number of factors could have made a big enough difference to change the results.

In this post by Arnold Kling on his askblog, he lists in the third paragraph some 15 different propositions that the election results are claimed to support. Kling’s own “meta-interpretation” is: “Because it is only one event, we are not going to be able to sort it out.”