SHAKESPEARE WAS A BLACK SWAN (COMMENT).

September 16, 2007 · Economics, Literature, Shakespeare

SHAKESPEARE WAS A BLACK SWAN (COMMENT). Nick commented on the suggestion by Derek Jacobi (that Shakespeare’s work was probably written by a committee) that people have trouble accepting that there can be somebody who is four or five standard deviations above the norm. He then notes that there have been billions of people. The probability of a very unusual event, one that is four or five standard deviations above the norm, is much more likely if the coin is tossed a billion times. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has a new book, THE BLACK SWAN The Impact of the Highly Improbable, which is all about events which he calls “Black Swans.” He defines a Black Swan as having three characteristics: (1) it is an outlier, (2) it has an extreme impact, and (3) people think up explanations for it after the fact. In these terms, explaining Shakespeare’s genius by claiming he was born a nobleman or that he had a university education is representative of the third characteristic. And claiming that Shakespeare’s work was done by a committee is comparable to claiming that there were several Black Swans writing together.

7 comments

Catherine September 17, 2007 at 3:25 PM

I have to wonder about man’s need to explain away the incredible and unlikely. If we gave up on achieving or hoping for the improbable, where would humanity be? I suppose no one will truly know for certain about the works of Shakespeare, but I think it is important to believe in them in order to inspire ourselves to higher levels and maintain hope that humanity is capable of truly great things.

Annalisa September 19, 2007 at 4:14 PM

I agree with Catherine’s words. At this point, Shakespeare represents something sacred and beautiful, made only more potent by the many attempts to explain away his genius. He is not just his work now; he is also a symbol of achievement, individuality, innovation, and so much more. And despite my penchant for asking “why?” and getting answered, in some ways I find nature’s mysteries all the more awe inspiring when there isn’t any explanation at all.

Lee September 19, 2007 at 4:40 PM

Last week in my feminist literary theory class we were discussing why Virginia Woolf used Shakespeare as the yardstick of literary achievement. I thought, if not Shakespeare, who? I can’t think of another playwright (or even perhaps another writer) for me that hit so many out of the park consistently.

Mr. Schaefer, I’ve heard you say that when you go to see a Shakespeare play you know you’re in for a good time and I must say I agree (making exceptions for particularly bad stagings, of course).

Looking up Woolf quotes regarding Shakespeare I found (and agree with) this:

Fiction is like a spider’s web, attached ever so lightly perhaps, but still attached to life at all four corners. Often the attachment is scarcely perceptible; Shakespeare’s plays, for instance, seem to hang there complete by themselves. But when the web is pulled askew, hooked up at the edge, torn in the middle, one remembers that these webs are not spun in midair by incorporeal creatures, but are the work of suffering human beings, and are attached to the grossly material things, like health and money and the houses we live in.

Philip September 19, 2007 at 8:21 PM

I agree with Catherine that Shakespeare represents a peak that humanity can aspire to because it was reached once. In thinking about Catherine’s comment, I said to Mary Jane that we are very lucky that our two greatest writers in English, Chaucer and Shakespeare, were also outstanding in their tolerance for human frailties. Mary Jane responded that Shakespeare and Chaucer were not merely tolerant of human frailties. They cherished them.

PREDICTING BLACK SWANS AT THE BEGINNING OF 2008. | Pater Familias December 29, 2008 at 2:44 PM

[...] on Nassim Taleb’s concept of black swans in September 2007 (Shakespeare was the subject of the post). The “Buttonwood” feature in the Economist for December 22, 2007 wrote about black swans and [...]

PICKING UP NICKELS IN FRONT OF A STEAMROLLER. | Pater Familias February 11, 2009 at 9:00 PM

[...] FRONT OF A STEAMROLLER. Looking back (using the search feature for the blog), I see that my first post of many on Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book THE BLACK SWAN The Impact of the Highly Improbable, [...]

CONSOLATIONS OF PHILOSOPHY–WE ARE ALL BLACK SWANS. | Pater Familias May 4, 2009 at 6:37 PM

[...] we think (of course, there may also be happy surprises as well–writers like Shakespeare, as I posted in September 2007). Taleb concludes the book with a consoling thought. “Imagine a speck of [...]